英國首相公佈“脫歐公投”時間表
英國《金融時報》 喬治•派克 倫敦, 昆廷•皮爾 柏林報導
英國首相大衛•卡梅倫(David
Cameron)昨日將英國在歐盟(EU)的未來前途置於危險之中，他的大膽賭博讓保守黨保持了團結，卻可能給保守黨和英國帶來深遠的影響。
卡梅倫承諾，如果他贏得下次大選，最晚將在2017年底就英國是否退出歐盟舉行全民公投，並堅信其他歐洲領導人會為英國提供更好的條款。
卡梅倫在外界期待已久的歐洲演講中表示，他相信能為英國爭取到更好的協議（包括從歐盟收回權力），並堅稱，“帶著勇氣和信念”，他有望贏得這場爭論。
他表示“對這項任務的難度沒有抱任何幻想”，柏林和巴黎的反應立即強化了這種說法，兩國政界人士明確表示，他們希望英國留在歐盟，但不會不惜代價。
法國外交部長洛朗•法比尤斯(Laurent
Fabius)表示，如果英國離開歐盟，法國“會鋪開紅地毯歡迎”逃離的商人，同時德國外長基多•威斯特威勒(Guido Westerwelle)表示，“挑三揀四的政策不是選項之一”。
德國總理安格拉•默克爾(Angela
Merkel)表示：“我們當然樂意討論英國的願望，但人們應該記住，其他國家也有他們自己的願望。”
默克爾願意做出讓步，但人們預計，在她的底線範圍內是不會允許卡梅倫破壞現有歐盟條約的，她擔心這可能導致其他國家借助談判破壞單一市場的規則。
如果卡梅倫在2015年英國大選中獲勝，他需要德國的支援，以求在兩年後將最終協議交給英國人民決定前，確保“歐盟具有靈活性、適應性和開放性”。
卡梅倫沒有說明如果談判失敗，他是否會爭取讓英國離開歐盟，儘管保守黨內相當多的人無疑會要求退出。
英國是否退出歐盟的不確定性沒有擾亂市場，但部分企業領導警告稱，這將阻礙他們的國內投資。
一些企業領導人支援卡梅倫尋求達成“新協議”，酒業集團帝亞吉歐(Diageo)首席執行官保羅•沃爾什(Paul Walsh)就是其中之一。
David Cameron speech: UK and the EU
PM David Cameron: "We will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in or out choice"
David
Cameron has said the British people must "have their say" on Europe as
he pledged an in/out referendum if the Conservatives win the election.
The prime minister said he wanted to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU, before asking people to vote.The British people would face a "very simple choice", he stated, either to accept the result of the talks or to leave the EU altogether.
Labour said Mr Cameron was "weak" and being driven by "party interest".
In a long-awaited speech, Mr Cameron pledged to hold a referendum during the early part of the next parliament - by the end of 2017 at the latest - if the Conservatives win the next general election.
He said it would be a decision on the UK's "destiny" and, if he secured a new relationship he was happy with, he would campaign "heart and soul" to stay within the EU.
"It is time for the British people to have their say," he said. "It is time to settle this European question in British politics. I say to the British people: this will be your decision."
However, Mr Cameron did not spell out what powers he would like to see the UK take back as part of a new settlement or what would happen if the negotiations did not go his way.
'Very simple choice' The Conservative leader has been under pressure from many of his MPs to give a binding commitment to a vote on Europe.
Continue reading the main story
It has taken quite some time for the prime minister to go from promising a major speech on Europe to delivering it.
But today marks the beginning of a process, not the end.
The many Eurosceptics in his party will be pleased that he is offering an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU - although some will regard the timescale as tardy.
But there are important hurdles. He has to win the next election with an overall majority. His European partners will have to be willing to renegotiate Britain's relationship.
And while the promise of a referendum will unite many in his party this side of an election, the process of renegotiation might re-open divisions. What the PM didn't say today is what would he do if the negotiations deliver less than he would like.
Would he still proceed with an in/out referendum? Would he still argue for a yes vote? Would others in his party who would be prepared to stay on the EU on the right terms defect to the No camp if they don't like the deal the PM strikes with Brussels?
Labour and the Lib Dems say David Cameron is creating damaging uncertainty for business, but he has thrown down the gauntlet to them.
Can they allow him to be the only major party leader to offer voters a say on EU membership after the next election?
Analysis
But today marks the beginning of a process, not the end.
The many Eurosceptics in his party will be pleased that he is offering an in/out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU - although some will regard the timescale as tardy.
But there are important hurdles. He has to win the next election with an overall majority. His European partners will have to be willing to renegotiate Britain's relationship.
And while the promise of a referendum will unite many in his party this side of an election, the process of renegotiation might re-open divisions. What the PM didn't say today is what would he do if the negotiations deliver less than he would like.
Would he still proceed with an in/out referendum? Would he still argue for a yes vote? Would others in his party who would be prepared to stay on the EU on the right terms defect to the No camp if they don't like the deal the PM strikes with Brussels?
Labour and the Lib Dems say David Cameron is creating damaging uncertainty for business, but he has thrown down the gauntlet to them.
Can they allow him to be the only major party leader to offer voters a say on EU membership after the next election?
Mr Cameron said "disillusionment"
with the EU was "at an all time high" and "simply asking the British
people to carry on accepting a European settlement over which they have
had little choice" was likely to accelerate calls for the UK to leave.
"That is why I am in favour of a referendum," he said. "I
believe in confronting this issue - shaping it, leading the debate. Not
simply hoping a difficult situation will go away."Setting out the conditions for a future poll, he said he would seek a "mandate" for a renegotiation and a referendum in the next Conservative election manifesto.
"And when we have negotiated that new settlement, we will give the British people a referendum with a very simple in-or-out choice to stay in the EU on these new terms; or come out altogether. It will be an in/out referendum."
But he said holding such a referendum now would be a "false choice" because Europe was set to change following the eurozone crisis and it would be "wrong to ask people whether to stay or go before we have had a chance to put the relationship right".
Mr Cameron said he "understood the appeal" of Britain going it alone and he was sure the UK would survive outside the EU. But, he said, the UK must think "very carefully" about the implications of withdrawal for its prosperity and role on the international stage.
"If we left the European Union, it would be a one-way ticket, not a return," he added.
The prime minister rejected suggestions that a new relationship was "impossible to achieve", adding that he would prefer all other EU countries to agree a new treaty but would be prepared to seek negotiations on a unilateral basis.
Conservative MPs who want a looser relationship with the EU have said they are "satisfied" with its contents.
Douglas Carswell told the BBC it was the speech he had "been waiting to hear from a Conservative prime minister all his adult life" while Mark Pritchard said it was "a major triumph" and would unite his party over the issue.
'Threatening to leave' But the former European commissioner and Labour cabinet minister Lord Mandelson told the BBC that Mr Cameron was putting forward a "completely bogus and rather phoney set of demands and circumstances" designed to appease critics in his party.
Continue reading the main story
“Start Quote
Douglas Alexander Shadow foreign secretaryWe understand the need for change but I don't honestly believe the best way to get change in a club of 27 is to stand at the exit door demanding change or threatening to leave”
Labour said the referendum
pledge defined Mr Cameron "as a weak prime minister, being driven by his
party, not by the national economic interest".
"We understand the need for change but I don't honestly
believe the best way to get change in a club of 27 is to stand at the
exit door demanding change or threatening to leave," shadow foreign
secretary Douglas Alexander said.The Lib Dems say pursuing a wholesale renegotiation of the UK's membership will cause uncertainty.
"The prime minister's efforts to reconcile his own position with that of his eurosceptic backbenchers leads logically to the position that if he could not get what he wanted out of Europe, he would be willing for the UK to leave," said its former leader Sir Menzies Campbell. "This will hardly commend his approach to those in the EU whose co-operation he requires."
The UK Independence Party said the "genie was out of the bottle" about a possible exit from the EU.
"Winning this referendum, if and when it comes, is not going to be an easy thing but I feel that Ukip's real job starts today," said the party's leader Nigel Farage."
John Cridland, director general of employers group, the CBI, said "closer union of the eurozone is not for us" but Mr Cameron "rightly recognises the benefits of retaining membership of what must be a reformed EU".
The speech, which has been in the planning for six months, had been scheduled for last Friday in the Netherlands, but was postponed because of the Algerian hostage crisis.
卡梅倫：有權要求改變英國歐盟關係
更新時間 2013年1月6日, 格林尼治標準時間22:23
英国没有中间道路
政府差不多一年前就承诺过，首相将就欧洲问题发表一场决定性的讲话。从最近透露出的消息来看，首相将在圣诞节前、还是节后发表这场讲话尚属五五之数。我知道，当局肯定巴不得赶紧做完这场演说，但我想劝戴维•卡梅伦(David Cameron)推迟演讲。
因为，这可能将是他担任首相期间做出的最重大决定。我担心我们还没有考虑清楚后果就匆忙踏上了退出欧盟(EU)的道路。
从伦敦市长鲍里斯•约翰逊(Boris Johnson)擅自的预告中，我们知道，演讲的主题将是承诺举行公投，让民众决定是与欧盟建立更加松散的新关系，还是脱离欧盟。然而，一场有效的公投必须提供两个实实在在的选项。卡梅伦曾巧妙地展示过他对这一点的理解：在苏格兰独立公投问题上，他迫使苏格兰民族党(Scottish National Party)领袖亚历克斯•萨尔蒙德(Alex Salmond)放弃了第三个选项——“自治权最大化”(Devo max)。但从相关报道来看，在欧洲问题上，他对这一点的把握没有达到同样的清晰程度。保守党的下议院后座议员利亚姆•福克斯(Liam Fox)及其欧洲怀疑论支持者所期盼的那种“回到未来”的选项是不存在的。
挪威的例子清楚表明，我们不可能重返欧盟在早期的前身——共同市场(Common Market)。挪威已经加入了单一市场，但最近挪威政府发布的一份报告指出，“在对挪威产生直接影响的决策过程中我们没有代表权，也没有任何大的影响力”。挪威只是从传真机上拿起欧盟的指示，予以执行而已。按照此项调查负责人的个人观点，“唯一切实的结论是加入欧盟——我们事实上置身于欧盟内部，但我们没有投票权”。如果挪威对这种地位不满，那么换做英国，同样也难以接受。顺带提一下，如果我们处于与挪威一样的地位，我们仍然需要向欧盟缴款——大约是目前净缴款水平的一半。
欧洲怀疑论者支持的另一种选择——“瑞士路线”对我们来说也不现实。瑞士通过120项双边协议与欧盟缔结关系。但这一关系已经破裂，2010年欧盟理事会(EU Council)明确表示，除非出现制度变革，否则不会与瑞士缔结新的协议，实际上对瑞士与挪威一视同仁了。
英国首相的策略似乎是，利用公投结果，迫使其他欧洲国家接受与英国形成更加松散的新型关系。但此计恐难奏效，理由很充足。当去年12月英国退出欧盟理事会的谈判时，英国得到的善意就被消磨殆尽了。如果英国退出，欧盟就成了德国人主导的俱乐部，很多欧洲人会安心接受这一现实。
来自不同党派的历任英国首相始终反对“双速欧洲”的局面，这也是有充分理由的。一旦我们不能进入欧盟关键的决策机构，我们就失去了所有左右我们自身未来的权力和影响力。因此，当欧洲理事会主席赫尔曼•范龙佩(Herman Van Rompuy)在本周峰会上提议进一步采取措施建设政治联盟时，英国不应该一开始就说不想成为其中一分子，从而把自己边缘化。相反，英国应该就欧盟的未来表达己见，构建同盟。
最近YouGov的一项民调显示，英国人之所以不喜欢欧洲，是因为我们只能俯首听命，却不能领导欧洲。英国人民是正确的。加入欧盟的唯一意义是，如果我们满腔热情地成为欧盟成员，就要领导欧洲，左右我们自己的命运。如果我们只能按规则行事，却对规则没有发言权，那么这种不上不下的状态会非常令人不舒服。
因此，如果不能完全并且满怀热忱地加入欧洲，那么唯一切实的选择就是抽身而退，连单一市场都不参加，而这正是欧洲怀疑论者的希冀。这并不是说要重现帝国时期的伟大、或者构建一种新联邦的可笑想法。而是说，只要其他欧洲人能接受，英国可以成为一种“大开曼群岛”(Greater Cayman Islands)式的离岸避税天堂，对欧洲大陆和世界其他地区只有很小的影响力。
当然，这一切都是国内政治。在约翰•梅杰(John Major)的时代，怀疑论者是少数，他们穿着颜色鲜艳的夹克，目光狂野。但今天，疯子占领了精神病院，卡梅伦制定政策必须听取后座议员们以及英国独立党(UK Independence party)的观点了。
但他也应该听听专家的意见。英国外交部官员暗示，假如退出欧盟，就不存在其他成员资格可供磋商，欧洲怀疑论者为此指责外交官们抱着失败主义思想。但这可能是因为，与后座的下议院保守党议员不同，外交官们拥有在欧盟内部以及更广阔的舞台上为英国争取利益的经验，他们更加明白什么可以磋商、什么不能。
如果首相要在演讲中提出举行公投，那么唯一切实的选择就是，要么全面加入欧盟，要么彻底退出。想象中的第三条道路是不存在的。
2011.12.13
白金漢大學教授不排除英國退出歐盟可能性
柏林隨著卡梅倫首相拒絕歐盟協議改革，英國白金漢大學政治學家格利斯（Anthony Glees）稱，英國完全可能有一天退出歐盟。格雷斯教授週一（12月12日）在接受德意志電台的採訪時指出，英國與歐盟的關係恰似婚姻關係，"雙方都應幸福，若有一方不再願意，婚姻便也完結"。格利斯教授指出，卡梅倫首相對歐盟所持懷疑立場獲得多數英國人的認可，"這對歐洲、對卡梅倫，以及對英國本身都是一個巨大的危險"。
Britain and the EU summit
Europe's great divorce
Dec 9th 2011, 8:03 by Charlemagne | BRUSSELS
WE JOURNALISTS are probably too bleary-eyed after a sleepless night to understand the full significance of what has just happened in Brussels. What is clear is that after a long, hard and rancorous negotiation, at about 5am this morning the European Union split in a fundamental way.In an effort to stabilise the euro zone, France, Germany and 21 other countries have decided to draft their own treaty to impose more central control over national budgets. Britain and three others have decided to stay out. In the coming weeks, Britain may find itself even more isolated. Sweden, the Czech Republic and Hungary want time to consult their parliaments and political parties before deciding on whether to join the new union-within-the-union.
So two decades to the day after the Maastricht Treaty was concluded, launching the process towards the single European currency, the EU's tectonic plates have slipped momentously along same the fault line that has always divided it—the English Channel.
Confronted by the financial crisis, the euro zone is having to integrate more deeply, with a consequent loss of national sovereignty to the EU (or some other central co-ordinating body); Britain, which had secured a formal opt-out from the euro, has decided to let them go their way.
Whether the agreement does anything to stabilise the euro is moot. The agreement is heavily tilted towards budget discipline and austerity. It does little to generate money in the short term to arrest the run on sovereigns, nor does it provide a longer-term perspective of jointly-issued bonds. Much will depend on how the European Central Bank responds in the coming days and weeks.
Some doubt remains over whether and how the "euro-plus" zone will have access to EU institutions—such as the European Commission, which conducts economic assessments and recommends action, and the European Court of Justice, which Germany hopes will ensure countries adopt proper balanced-budget rules—over Britain's objections.
But especially for France, on the brink of losing its AAA credit rating and now the junior partner to Germany, this is a famous political victory. President Nicolas Sarkozy had long favoured the creation of a smaller, "core" euro zone, without the awkward British, Scandinavians and eastern Europeans that generally pursue more liberal, market-oriented policies. And he has wanted the core run on an inter-governmental basis, ie by leaders rather than by supranational European institutions. This would allow France, and Mr Sarkozy in particular, to maximise its impact.
Mr Sarkozy made substantial progress on both fronts. The president tried not to gloat when he emerged at 5am to explain that an agreement endorsed by all 27 members of the EU had proved impossible because of British obstruction. “You cannot have an opt-out and then ask to participate in all the discussion about the euro that you did not want to have, and which you also criticised,” declared the French president.
With the entry next year of Croatia, which will sign its accession treaty today, the EU is still growing, said Mr Sarkozy. “The bigger Europe is, the less integrated it can be. That is an obvious truth.”
For Britain the benefit of the bargain in Brussels is far from clear. It took a good half-hour after the end of Mr Sarkozy's appearance for Mr Cameron to emerge and explain his action. The prime minister claimed he had taken a “tough decision but the right one” for British interests—particularly for its financial-services industry. In return for his agreement to change the EU treaties, Mr Cameron had wanted a number of safeguards for Britain. When he did not get them, he used his veto.
After much studied vagueness on his part about Britain's objectives, Mr Cameron's demand came down to a protocol that would ensure Britain would be given a veto on financial-services regulation (see PDF copy here). The British government has become convinced that the European Commission, usually a bastion of liberalism in Europe, has been issuing regulations hostile to the City of London under the influence of its French single-market commissioner, Michel Barnier. And yet strangely, given the accusation that Brussels was taking aim at the heart of the British economy, almost all of the new rules issued so far have been passed with British approval (albeit after much bitter backroom fighting). Tactically, too, it seemed odd to make a stand in defence of the financiers that politicians, both in Britain and across the rest of European, prefer to denounce.
Mr Cameron said he is “relaxed” about the separation. The EU has always been about multiple speeds; he was glad Britain had stayed out of the euro and out of the passport-free Schengen area. He said that life in the EU, particularly the single market, will continue as normal. “We wish them well as we want the euro zone to sort out its problems, to achieve stability and growth that all of Europe needs.” The drawn faces of senior officials seemed to say otherwise.
The 23 members of the new pact, if they act as a block, can outvote Britain. They are divided among themselves, of course. But their habit of working together and cutting deals will, inevitably, begin to weigh against Britain over time.
Mr Sarkozy and Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, have given notice of their desire for the euro zone to act in all the domains that would normally be the remit of all 27 members—for example, labour-market regulations and the corporate-tax base.
Britain may assume it will benefit from extra business for the City, should the euro zone ever pass a financial-transaction tax. But what if the new club starts imposing financial regulations among the 17 euro-zone members, or the 23 members of the euro-plus pact? That could begin to force euro-denominated transactions into the euro zone, say Paris or Frankfurt. Britain would, surely, have had more influence had the countries of the euro zone remained under an EU-wide system.
It says much about the dire state of the debate on Europe within Britain's Conservative party that, as Mr Cameron set out to Brussels, another Tory MP portentously invoked the memory of Neville Chamberlain, who infamously came back from Munich with empty assurances from Adolf Hitler. Mr Cameron may have made a grievous mistake with regard to Britain's long-term interest. But at least nobody can accuse him of returning from Brussels with a piece of paper in his hand.
(Picture credit: AFP)
Read more: Bagehot's take on Britain falling out of the EU
New Eurozone Deal Won't Include UK
David Cameron vetoed a series of financial regulations at EU talks, leaving the 17 eurozone countries to move forward on t
European leaders hammered out the new deal outside of the EU framework
Photo illustration by Sean Gallup/Getty Images.
Photo illustration by Sean Gallup/Getty Images.
After nearly 10 hours of talks in Brussels, European leaders agreed Friday to an intergovernmental pact aimed at enforcing more disciplined budgets in the wake of a debt crisis that has threatened the euro.
But the big news from the agreement, brokered by all 17 countries who use the euro as their currency (the eurozone), is that it will be done outside of the framework of the European Union after British Prime Minister David Cameron refused to sign on.
Cameron balked at joining the deal after a series of exceptions he demanded to safeguard British interests were blocked by France, the Guardian explains. Cameron defended his decision, saying, "What is on offer isn't in Britain's interests so I didn't agree to it."
The agreement and new rules are seen as necessary and urgent as the eurozone economy teeters on the brink of collapse. The crisis started in Greece two years ago, prompting huge bailouts, but with Italy and Spain in a troubled economic state, the crisis has worsened recently and the entire eurozone is now stagnant, if not already in a recession, CBS News and the New York Times explain.
Without some sort of stabilizing plan in place, the commitment of institutions like the European Central Bank to continue to purchase bonds from heavily indebted countries is questionable. ECB’s head Mario Draghi gave a promising response to the new agreement, saying: "It is a very good outcome for euro area members."
To attempt to stabilize the euro by forcing more fiscal and financial discipline, the 17 eurozone countries will hammer out a deal that includes penalties for those countries breaking the new rules. (Overspending countries will face sanctions, for example.) A handful of countries who hope to use the euro as their currency in the future will probably also sign, the BBC reports. The leaders are aiming to have the pact in effect by March of next year.
沈子涵/整理
法新社倫敦10日報導，根據10日新出爐的民調，大多數英國人認為首相卡麥隆（David Cameron）本週在布魯塞爾高峰會上否決歐洲聯盟（EU）條約修訂案，是正確的抉擇。
根據英國「週日郵報」（Mail on Sunday）調查，卡麥隆做法不但獲得疑歐派（eurosceptic）英國媒體讚賞，也贏得62%民眾支持，僅19%受訪者認為他做錯了。
多達66%民眾希望公投表決英國是否退出歐盟，而認為倫敦當局應與布魯塞爾重新磋商雙邊關係的受訪者也占66%。卡麥隆所屬的保守黨（Conservative party）中早有許多人要求付諸公投決定去留歐盟。
真正希望英國退出歐盟的受訪者較少，只有48%，33%希望留在歐盟。
不過有48%民眾認為歐盟會因債務危機解散，29%認為不會；約65%民眾相信歐元會消失，僅19%認為歐元能度過危機。
儘管歐盟廣泛認為卡麥隆動用否決權誤事，但51%英國受訪者覺得卡麥隆在歐盟峰會表現得宜，44%認為德國總理梅克爾（Angela Merkel）表現優異，35%讚賞法國總統沙柯吉（Nicolas Sarkozy）作為。
這項Survation網路民調昨晚和今天進行，受訪者共1020人。
沈子涵/整理
法新社倫敦10日報導，根據10日新出爐的民調，大多數英國人認為首相卡麥隆（David Cameron）本週在布魯塞爾高峰會上否決歐洲聯盟（EU）條約修訂案，是正確的抉擇。
根據英國「週日郵報」（Mail on Sunday）調查，卡麥隆做法不但獲得疑歐派（eurosceptic）英國媒體讚賞，也贏得62%民眾支持，僅19%受訪者認為他做錯了。
多達66%民眾希望公投表決英國是否退出歐盟，而認為倫敦當局應與布魯塞爾重新磋商雙邊關係的受訪者也占66%。卡麥隆所屬的保守黨（Conservative party）中早有許多人要求付諸公投決定去留歐盟。
真正希望英國退出歐盟的受訪者較少，只有48%，33%希望留在歐盟。
不過有48%民眾認為歐盟會因債務危機解散，29%認為不會；約65%民眾相信歐元會消失，僅19%認為歐元能度過危機。
儘管歐盟廣泛認為卡麥隆動用否決權誤事，但51%英國受訪者覺得卡麥隆在歐盟峰會表現得宜，44%認為德國總理梅克爾（Angela Merkel）表現優異，35%讚賞法國總統沙柯吉（Nicolas Sarkozy）作為。
這項Survation網路民調昨晚和今天進行，受訪者共1020人。
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