英國的“黑色星期五”
週
五
對於英國或英國財政大臣奧斯本(George
Osborne)而言可不是什麼好日子。一份關鍵的服務業調查顯示英國經濟面臨新的困境﹐10年期英國國債收益率高於評級略低的法國國債﹐而且英國政府的
稅收和福利政策調整招致越來越多的反對。2013年餘下的日子里﹐英國可能面臨更加嚴峻的挑戰。Markit/CIPS採購經理人指數(PMI)顯示﹐英國12月份服務業意外萎縮﹐該指數由11月份的50.2降至48.9﹐遠低於50這一榮枯分水嶺。服務業在英國經濟中佔到大約四分之三。而服務業萎縮加大了英國經濟面臨的下滑風險。
與 此同時﹐英國國債收益率繼續攀升。10年期國債收益率週五觸及2.13%﹐僅在三個交易日就上升0.3個百分點﹐並創下去年5月份以來最高水平﹐之後小幅 回落。近幾個月﹐英國國債已經大幅跑輸德國國債﹐而且週五收益率一度高於評級為AA的法國國債。這意味著投資者大體預計三大評級機構中至少有一家將在 2013年下調英國評級。在奧斯本秋季預算聲明顯示他將無法實現關鍵的債務削減目標後﹐英國評級下調的可能性則進一步加大。
英國財政研究 所(Institute for Fiscal Studies)稱﹐下週英國將取消高收入家庭的兒童福利費﹐這一調整將導致許多家庭的邊際所得稅率大幅上升﹐有的甚至已經遠遠超過適用於最高收入人群的 最高所得稅率45%。此舉將重新點燃外界對於英國政府能力的質疑﹐並引發關於英國政府減赤策略公信力的新一輪疑問。
上述這些壓力都不太可能在2013年快速緩解。英國經濟依然受到沉重債務負擔的拖纍﹐實際薪資水平因持續高於目標的通貨膨脹率而受到擠壓。英國將大規模發行國債﹐而且未來英國貨幣政策的不確定性升溫。如果經濟無法實現強勁增長﹐英國政府的財政政策則面臨進一步脫軌的風險。
今年最大的不同是﹐如果歐元區危機依然處於潛伏狀態﹐英國將在一定程度上失去避險地位﹐而且國內問題將變得更加顯著。
Richard Barley
（Richard Barley是《股聞天下》欄目作者﹐自1998年以來一直從不同的角度報導歐洲債券市場。）
Consumer spending surveys give mixed messages
High Street spending fell by 2% in December despite the late Christmas rush
UK consumer spending fell in December despite a late Christmas rush, a survey has suggested.
Spending was down by 1.7% on a year earlier, and by 0.9% on the previous month, with the High Street particularly weak, Visa Europe's expenditure index found.
Household goods spending slumped by 9.2% year-on-year, while money spent on food and drink was down 2.2%.
But a separate survey from MasterCard found retail sales rose in December.
It found that sales excluding petrol rose by 3.9% against a year earlier.
"Retail sales had a slow start in December... [but] households left their Christmas shopping until the last minute and gave a late boost to retail sales on the High Street and online," said Shweta Chaudhury at MasterCard Spending Plus.
'Disappointingly weak'
The Visa survey painted a different picture.
It showed High Street spending down 2% from a year earlier, with online spend 0.4% lower. Over the final three months of the year, total spending fell by 0.9%, the index suggested.
"Consumer spending remained disappointingly weak in December," said Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, which compiled the index.
"With consumers playing an important role in fuelling the 0.9% GDP increase in the third quarter, the drop in fourth quarter spending raises the likelihood that the economy may have contracted again."
The Visa index is based on figures for spending on Visa cards, which are then adjusted to reflect wider consumer spending.
A clearer picture of UK consumer spending in December should be available when the British Retail Consortium reports its retail sales figures on 8 January.
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