倫敦傳真：英為何要抗悲觀主義
 倫敦的星期一從藍色轉到黑色的那一天，適逢台北的大年初一。當天早上，英國首相布朗在倫敦外籍記者協會（FPA）就目前的經濟現況發表講話，疾呼國際社會通力合作，共渡這場經濟風暴，重建全球金融新秩序（美聯社）。 |
自從金融海嘯席捲全球以來，過去四個月，每周一幾乎都成了開啟一周新破產、裁員和股市大跌之始。在倫敦，上周的顏色還是藍色的「憂鬱星期一」（Blue Monday），本周卻瞬間下沉，成了「黑色星期一」（Black Monday）。
倫敦的星期一從藍色轉到黑色的那一天，適逢台北的大年初一。當天早上，英國首相布朗在倫敦外籍記者協會（FPA）就目前的經濟現況發表講話，疾呼國際社會通力合作，共渡這場經濟風暴，重建全球金融新秩序。
這是布朗第三次到倫敦外籍記者協會舉行記者會。布朗第一次到FPA發表重要政策，是他在布萊爾政府擔任財相時。過去，FPA很難邀請到英國首相前來參與任何活動，布萊爾執政十年，從未造訪外籍記者協會。即使在伊拉克戰爭期間，調查哈珊政府是否擁有重大殺傷武器的獨立報告出爐時，唐寧街十號也只派遣了當時的新聞主任坎貝爾（Alistair Campbell）前來向國際媒體進行說明。全球金融危機爆發後，布朗卻在短短兩個月裡，二度在倫敦外籍記者協會露臉。
英國首相和唐寧街十號的一百八十度大轉變，顯示了英國政府的迫切與務實。英國這次真正感受到與國際攜手的重要和必要，不能再延續過去僅針對英美和歐洲媒體，以及其他少數選擇性國際媒體，舉行首相記者會的方式傳遞訊息，說明政策。
針對布朗在「黑色星期一」這一天的演說，英國廣播公司（BBC）審慎下了一個標題，「布朗警告對抗悲觀主義」（Brown warns against pessimism）*。
許多人不解，英國首相為什麼不直接告訴大眾，要充滿希望，要樂觀呢?偏要繞個大圈，叫大家對「對抗悲觀主義?」
聆聽布朗講演，他把這次的金融危機形容為全球新秩序生產前的「陣痛」，強調此刻不能只抱希望，更要採取行動。布朗對樂觀隻字未提，反要大家對抗悲觀主義。布朗不但未激勵大眾要樂觀，還提醒大家此刻尤其不可「含混其事」（muddling through）**。
英國首相這句「不可含混其事」，似乎最得民心。面對貶值了百分之三十的英鎊，接近二百萬的失業人口，任何有關希望和樂觀的講法，這個時 候，在英國似乎都變得不知民間疾苦。英國商業部長瓦蒂拉（Baroness Vadera）因為表示，她可以從經濟衰退中看到復甦的「綠芽」，成為第一個犯眾怒的政府官員。工作部長麥克納提（Tony McNulty）在失業率節節上升時，因告訴大家，「隧道終點有亮光」，被輿論批評活在幻想世界裡。
仔細想來，要了解英國人還真的不太容易。美國總統歐巴馬的就職演說，讓很多英國人覺得很稱羡，可是，英國政治領袖若真的有那股直接表述的熱情與希望，定會讓大部分的人質疑卻步。
英國人面對困境和危機時的戰鬥心是旺盛的，情緒上卻極度抑制。大眾要的不僅是決心而已，而是「嚴厲的意志力」（grim determination）***。
英國名相邱吉爾是歷史上公認的演說家，二次世界大戰期間，他在英國最黑暗的時刻中，絕口不提希望。但他那句，「我能夠提供的只有血、汗，勞苦和淚水。」傳誦迄今。
一九八一年，英國失業人口超過二百萬人，柴契爾政府的工作大臣泰比特（Norman Tebbit）也沒有談希望，只告訴大家，「騎上你的單車，出去找工作!」泰比特的態度，從某個角度看，其實很殘酷，但「騎上你的單車」自此卻成了一種精神。
「寒冬總會過去，春天很快到來。」關於經濟衰退，台灣的馬總統和中共的溫家寶是這麼說的。這個論調，可以想像，在英國是行不通的。然而，此刻抱持希望總比必須對抗悲觀可取。
*和**
BBC NEWS | Politics | Brown warns against 'pessimism'
- [ 翻譯此頁 ]26 Jan 2009 ... Gordon Brown has given a wide-ranging speech on the economy ... with confidence" and warned against just "muddling through as pessimists". ...**
Gordon Brown 可能沒有讀過政治學中著名的論文 The ART of Muddling Through
其實 因為了解局勢如瞎子摸象 不可能不try and error
***grim 是"不屈" 知其不可為而為" (某時段內)
Brown warns against 'pessimism'
Gordon Brown has given a wide-ranging speech on the economy
The economic crisis should be treated as "the difficult birth-pangs of a new global order", with new rules introduced on trade, Gordon Brown says.
The prime minister set out a series of actions designed to "replace fear with confidence" and warned against just "muddling through as pessimists".
During a speech defending his handling of the crisis he also warned against the "deglobalisation threat".
His speech came as a poll suggested the Tory lead had grown to 15% over Labour.
The UK is now officially in recession for the first time since 1991, with many businesses blaming difficulties in obtaining loans for the crisis.
'Fill the gap'
Last week the government announced a scheme to offer banks insurance against losing more money from the bad debts which started the credit crunch.
The Bank of England will also be able to buy up to £50bn worth of assets in companies in all sectors of the economy.
Addressing the Foreign Press Association in London, Mr Brown said such measures were intended to "fill the gap" in lending.
He added: "We face a choice. We could allow this crisis to start a retreat from globalisation.
 |  It will be like turning around a supertanker  George Osborne, Conservatives |
"As some want, we could close our markets - for capital, financial services, trade and for labour - and therefore reduce the risks of globalisation.
"But that would reduce global growth, deny us the benefits of global trade and confine millions to global poverty.
"Or we could view the threats and challenges we face today as the difficult birth-pangs of a new global order - and our task now as nothing less than making the transition through a new internationalism to the benefits of an expanding global society - not muddling through as pessimists but making the necessary adjustment to a better future and setting the new rules for this new global order."
'Gloomsters'
He said: "As the downturn spreads across the world, we are, for the first time, seeing cross border flows growing more slowly than domestic flows. And we are seeing banks favouring domestic lending over foreign lending.
"This is a trend which must be halted if we are to avoid the risk of a damaging worldwide spiral of deleveraging and deglobalisation - with adverse consequences for all economies."
Mr Brown received some support for his attempts to brighten the gloom as Barclays Bank shares soared 60% after its chairman and chief executive wrote an open letter to investors saying its profits would be above £5.3bn.
The effects of the recession are now really starting to bite
And the director general of the Confederation of British Industry, Richard Lambert, wrote in the Daily Telegraph that "the UK is not about to go bust" and that recent government measures "will be enough to prevent something much worse (than the current recession) - provided we don't allow ourselves to get swept away by the gloomsters".
But SNP spokesman Stewart Hosie described Mr Brown's comments as "meaningless rubbish" designed to deflect criticism from the prime minister.
"Gordon Brown might be better answering why he allowed a credit bubble during his tenure as chancellor or why debt levels were so high that the recession can now only be fought by doubling the national debt to over £1 trillion," he said.
Meanwhile, shadow chancellor George Osborne told the Institute of Chartered Accountants that a Conservative government would make Whitehall more accountable.
'Incentives'
He promised to include a clause on the responsibility to taxpayers in the employment agreements of senior civil servants, with the Civil Service Code being rewritten to incorporate "responsible financial management".
Public sector employees should also be rewarded for suggesting waste-cutting ideas, Mr Osborne added.
He said: "We need a new culture of financial discipline across Whitehall. That means new incentives, new information and new powers of investigation."
Mr Osborne added: "Creating a new culture of financial discipline in Whitehall is not going to be easy. It will be like turning around a supertanker.
"But with a determined political will and the right plans, we can do it. We can turn the Whitehall supertanker and put Britain on the right course."
A ComRes opinion poll for the Independent suggests the Conservatives have increased their lead over Labour to 15 points - from five points last month.
It puts the party on 43%, with Labour on 28% and the Liberal Democrats on 16%. ComRes telephoned 1,012 adults from 21 to 22 January.
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